Metro Edmonton
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• Metro Edmonton home values have been volatile since 2021, and are trending upward.

• The last 4 years have been banner years for Edmonton buyer activity, and current conditions favour sellers.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Edmonton as a moderate-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates have eased from their peak but remain high relative to the 2010–2020 average, limiting buyer budgets.

• Economic uncertainty is rising due to Canada’s recent migration policy shift and the Trump administration’s tariffs, which could further weigh on the market.

This article covers:

1. What is the current state of the property market?

2. Where are prices headed?

3. Should investors sell?

4. Is this a good time to buy?

1. What is the current state of the property market?

Overview of the Edmonton Property Market

Metro Edmonton has a population of roughly 1.2 million and was ranked 76th among the best 100 cities in the world in 2021. However, it hasn’t made the top 100 cities since. Calgary, Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, and Vancouver are on the top 100 list.

Edmonton, the capital of Alberta, offers a vibrant and dynamic lifestyle, blending urban amenities with a strong community spirit. While it may not always top the same global livability lists as its southern neighbor, it boasts its own unique set of advantages that make it a compelling place to call home.

• A Festival City with a Cultural Heart: Edmonton is renowned as "Canada's Festival City," hosting a diverse array of events throughout the year. From the world-famous Edmonton International Fringe Theatre Festival to the Edmonton Folk Music Festival, there's always something happening to engage and entertain. The city's thriving arts scene, including the Art Gallery of Alberta and the Citadel Theatre, contributes to its rich cultural landscape.

• Economic Diversification and Growth: While traditionally associated with the oil and gas industry, Edmonton's economy is diversifying rapidly. The city is becoming a hub for technology, healthcare, education, and advanced manufacturing. This economic growth translates into ample job opportunities and a promising future for residents.

• Affordable Living and Real Estate: Compared to other major Canadian cities, Edmonton offers a more affordable cost of living, particularly in terms of housing. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking to rent, you'll find a wider range of options and better value for your money. This affordability makes it an attractive destination for young families and professionals.

• River Valley and Green Spaces: Edmonton boasts the largest urban parkland in North America, the North Saskatchewan River Valley. This expansive green space offers endless opportunities for outdoor recreation, including hiking, biking, picnicking, and cross-country skiing. The river valley provides a natural oasis within the city, promoting a healthy and active lifestyle.

• Strong Educational Institutions: Edmonton is home to reputable post-secondary institutions, including the University of Alberta, NAIT (Northern Alberta Institute of Technology), and MacEwan University. These institutions attract students from around the world and contribute to the city's intellectual and cultural vitality.

• A Welcoming and Community-Oriented City: Edmontonians are known for their friendly and welcoming nature. The city has a strong sense of community, with numerous neighborhood events and initiatives that bring people together. This sense of belonging makes it easy for newcomers to feel at home.

Overall, Edmonton presents a compelling combination of affordability, cultural richness, and economic opportunity. It's a city on the rise, offering a vibrant and fulfilling lifestyle for those seeking a dynamic and welcoming community.

Edmonton's supply is very constrained. Even with lacklustre purchase demand, prices are rising because there are fewer listings for sale.

The market is a seller's market and sellers have the upper hand in negotiations. In the past year, inventory levels have dropped, disadvantaging buyers. Months of inventory dropped from 2.4 to 2.3 compared to last year, down 7 percent.

Metro Edmonton Detached House Prices

Edmonton’s house prices are exploring uncharted territory but may be losing steam.

We believe politicians are hoping to guide the market toward a typical annual real estate cycle with price growth in the range of 1 to 3% annually – in line with income growth.

Edmonton house prices are rising, and supply is tight. Demand is weakening, perhaps because of he trade war. Unlike Calgary, there’s much less supply at this time of year than in the previous four years.

Metro Edmonton New Construction Home Prices

Prices of new homes plateaued. Based on economic fundamentals, they might have hit a ceiling.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

There is a record number of homes under construction and 2025 housing starts are strong.

Market Risk

Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, Edmonton is at moderate risk of a significant market correction.

Metro Edmonton Condo Apartment Prices

Metro Edmonton condo apartment values are rising at a brisk pace. A December 2022 CBC news report said that Alberta has attracted the attention of many Ontario real estate speculative investors. Lower price-to-rent ratios and landlord-friendly tenancy laws attract out-of-province investors.

However, buyer demand has taken a hit recently, perhaps due to the trade war and its potential impacts on the oil and gas industry.

With more people working-from-home, we expect developers will begin marketing larger (i.e., 2 and 3 bedrooms) apartments to meet buyer preferences. As the supply of more generous floor plans comes to the market, it may depress the values for small floor plan condos.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4 and 5 bedroom condos because:

• Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.

• Canadians who work from home need more room to segregate workspace from living space.

• Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).

• Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.

Metro Edmonton Townhouse Prices

Very affordable for first-time homebuyers

Edmonton’s home prices are very affordable. A first-time homebuyer household earning $94,000 (the median Metro Edmonton household before-tax income) can get a $380,000 mortgage. That’s more than enough for a first-time homebuyer to buy a condo, but buying a house is now out of reach for at least 1 in 3 Edmontonians.

What about the rest of the West?

Read the Vancouver Home Price Forecast, Okanagan Valley Home Price Forecast and Calgary Home Price Forecast.

2. Where are prices headed?

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for looking out toward 2027. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:

• Will the federal government’s recent migration policy pivot lead to a shrinking population?

• Will mortgage rates drop to the 2 to 3 percent range that Canadians have grown used to?

• Will Trump impose a 25% tariff on Canada, leading to a trade war and recession?

How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review several forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms, and we then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic prediction, and the average forecast. Want to learn more about real estate risk? We've written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Fitch Ratings Global Housing Forecast

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• Calgary Real Estate Board Forecast

3. Is it a good time to sell your Edmonton property?

From a seller’s perspective, the market is favourable – it’s a seller’s market. Also, the annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year. If you plan to sell, now may be a better time to sell later, particularly because a U.S. trade war could derail the market.

Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller Guide

4. Is this a good time to buy a home in Edmonton?

Mortgage rates are relatively high and falling. Also, the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn. If you wait, home values might be higher, but your mortgage will likely be cheaper.

If you are considering buying, drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don’t bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.

Are you planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• Canada housing market unlikely to surge despite plunging interest rates (MPA | Mar 14)

• Millennials, gen Z in 'Goldilocks moment' to jump on Canada's property ladder (Financial Post | Mar 12)

• Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as country faces 'new crisis' from tariffs (CBC | Mar 12)

• Underbidding in Calgary reached highest level in Q4: Wahi (REM | Feb 26)

• Housing market faces “uncertainty” amid economic and geopolitical shifts: CMHC (REM | Feb 10)

• Housing construction booming in Calgary, city says (CTV News | Feb 06)

• Calgary home sales down 12% in January but still above seasonal average (BNN Bloomberg | Feb 03)

• Calgary housing market 'remains strong' despite slowed migration, tariff uncertainty: CREB 2025 forecast (MSN | Jan 22)

• Canada doesn’t need bigger cities to solve the housing crisis, report finds — it needs more cities (The Toronto Star | Jan 21)

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