Metro Calgary
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• Metro Calgary home values have been volatile since 2021, and are now trending upward.

• The last 4 years have been banner years for Calgary buyer activity and current conditions favour sellers.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Calgary as a lower-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates have eased from their peak, but remain high relative to the 2010–2020 average, limiting buyer budgets.

• Economic uncertainty is rising due to Canada’s recent migration policy shift and the Trump administration’s tariffs, which could further weigh on the market.

This article covers:

1. What is the current state of the property market?

2. Where are prices headed?

3. Should investors sell?

4. Is this a good time to buy?

1. What is the current state of the Calgary property market?

Overview of the Calgary Property Market

Metro Calgary has a population of roughly 1.7 million and was ranked 93rd among the world’s 100 best cities by Resonance Research.

Calgary was ranked the fifth most livable city in the world and the most livable city in North America in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s annual list of the world’s most livable cities.

Calgary is often praised for its unique blend of big-city amenities and a friendly, welcoming atmosphere. Here are some factors that make it an attractive city to live in:

1. Proximity to Nature: Calgary's location at the foothills of the Rocky Mountains is a major draw. Residents enjoy easy access to breathtaking natural landscapes, perfect for hiking, skiing, camping, and other outdoor activities. Banff National Park, a world-renowned natural wonder, is just a short drive away.

2. High Quality of Life: Calgary consistently ranks high in global livability surveys. This is due to factors like low crime rates, clean air and water, excellent healthcare, and a well-developed infrastructure. The city also has a strong sense of community and a friendly, welcoming atmosphere.

3. Affordable Housing: Compared to other major Canadian cities like Toronto and Vancouver, Calgary offers more affordable housing options, whether you're looking to buy or rent. This makes it an attractive choice for families and young professionals seeking a good balance between cost of living and quality of life.

4. Sunny Weather and Chinooks: Calgary is one of the sunniest major cities in Canada, with over 300 days of sunshine per year. It also experiences unique weather phenomena called Chinooks, warm, dry winds that can raise temperatures significantly in the winter, providing a welcome respite from the cold.

5. Lower Taxes: Compared to many other Canadian cities, Calgary residents benefit from lower property taxes, no property transfer taxes, and no provincial sales tax. This can result in significant savings.

Overall, Calgary is an excellent place for young families. It offers a high quality of life, affordability, and low taxes.

While both the detached house and apartment markets in Calgary remain in seller's territory, there's a noticeable trend of increasing inventory, which is providing buyers with more options.

Inventory levels for detached houses have seen a significant increase. Months of inventory have risen from 1.4 to 2.1, representing a 50% increase compared to the previous year. This indicates a greater selection of available detached homes.

The apartment market has experienced an even more substantial shift. Months of inventory have surged from 1.4 to 3.5, marking a 150% increase year-over-year. This signifies a considerable expansion in the availability of apartments.

Metro Calgary Detached House Prices

Calgary house prices are rising again with the seasonal cycle.

Prices are rising and supply is tight, but there’s more supply than in the previous four years, for this time of year.

Demand is weakening, perhaps because of he trade war, and active listings are beginning to accumulate.

Metro Calgary New Construction Home Prices

Prices of new homes have plateaued. Based on economic fundamentals, they might have hit a ceiling.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

New home construction is near record levels as developers sprint to bring new housing stock to the market. Property development is a fantastic business in Calgary, while developers struggle to sell new projects in Vancouver and Toronto.

Market Risk

Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, Calgary is at higher risk of a market correction.

Metro Calgary Condo Apartment Prices

Metro Calgary condo apartment prices are following the annual cycle.

However purchases have weakened and active listings are accumulating.

With more people working from home, we expect developers to begin marketing larger (i.e., 2—and 3-bedroom apartments) to meet buyer preferences. As the supply of more generous floor plans comes to the market, it may depress the values for small floor plan condos.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4 and 5-bedroom condos because:

• Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.

• Canadians who work from home need more room to segregate workspace from living space.

• Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).

• Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.

Metro Calgary Townhouse Prices

Very affordable for first-time homebuyers

Even in the current market conditions, a condo is well within reach for most Calgarians. A homebuyer household earning $99,000 (the median Metro Calgary household before-tax income) can get a $425,000 mortgage. That’s more than enough to buy a benchmark condo, but a house purchase is moving out of reach for most locals.

What about the rest of the West?

Read the Edmonton Home Price Forecast, Vancouver Home Price Forecast Forecast, and Okanagan Valley Home Price Forecast.

2. Where are Metro Calgary prices headed?

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for looking out toward 2027. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:

• Will the federal government’s recent migration policy pivot lead to a shrinking population?

• Will mortgage rates drop to the 2 to 3 percent range that Canadians have grown used to?

• Will Trump impose a 25% tariff on Canada, leading to a trade war and recession?

How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review several forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms, and we then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic predictions, and the average forecast. Want to learn more about real estate risk? We’ve written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Fitch Ratings Global Housing Forecast

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• Calgary Real Estate Board Forecast

3. Is it a good time to sell your Calgary property?

From a seller’s perspective, the market is favourable – it’s a seller’s market. Also, the annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year. If you plan to sell, now may be a better time to sell later, particularly because a U.S. trade war could derail the market.

Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller Guide

4. Is this a good time to buy a Calgary home?

Mortgage rates are relatively high and falling. Also, the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn. If you wait, home values might be higher, but your mortgage will likely be cheaper.

If you are considering buying, drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don’t bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.

Are you Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• Canada housing market unlikely to surge despite plunging interest rates (MPA | Mar 14)

• Millennials, gen Z in 'Goldilocks moment' to jump on Canada's property ladder (Financial Post | Mar 12)

• Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as country faces 'new crisis' from tariffs (CBC | Mar 12)

• Underbidding in Calgary reached highest level in Q4: Wahi (REM | Feb 26)

• Housing market faces “uncertainty” amid economic and geopolitical shifts: CMHC (REM | Feb 10)

• Housing construction booming in Calgary, city says (CTV News | Feb 06)

• Calgary home sales down 12% in January but still above seasonal average (BNN Bloomberg | Feb 03)

• Calgary housing market 'remains strong' despite slowed migration, tariff uncertainty: CREB 2025 forecast (MSN | Jan 22)

• Canada doesn’t need bigger cities to solve the housing crisis, report finds — it needs more cities (The Toronto Star | Jan 21)

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