Metro Calgary
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• Metro Calgary home values have been volatile since 2021, and are now trending upward.

• The last 4 years have been banner years for Calgary buyer activity and current conditions favour sellers.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Calgary as a lower-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates have eased from their peak, but remain high relative to the 2010–2020 average, limiting buyer budgets.

• Economic uncertainty is rising due to Canada’s recent migration policy shift and the Trump administration’s tariff threats, both of which could further weigh on the market.

This article covers:

1. What is the current state of the property market?

2. Where are prices headed?

3. Should investors sell?

4. Is this a good time to buy?

1. What is the current state of the Calgary property market?

Home Price Overview

Metro Calgary has a population of roughly 1.7 million and was ranked 93rd among the world’s 100 best cities by Resonance Research.

Calgary was ranked the fifth most livable city in the world and the most livable city in North America in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s annual list of the world’s most livable cities.

Calgary is often praised for its unique blend of big-city amenities and a friendly, welcoming atmosphere. Here are some factors that make it an attractive city to live in:

1. Proximity to Nature: Calgary's location at the foothills of the Rocky Mountains is a major draw. Residents enjoy easy access to breathtaking natural landscapes, perfect for hiking, skiing, camping, and other outdoor activities. Banff National Park, a world-renowned natural wonder, is just a short drive away.

2. High Quality of Life: Calgary consistently ranks high in global livability surveys. This is due to factors like low crime rates, clean air and water, excellent healthcare, and a well-developed infrastructure. The city also has a strong sense of community and a friendly, welcoming atmosphere.

3. Affordable Housing: Compared to other major Canadian cities like Toronto and Vancouver, Calgary offers more affordable housing options, whether you're looking to buy or rent. This makes it an attractive choice for families and young professionals seeking a good balance between cost of living and quality of life.

4. Sunny Weather and Chinooks: Calgary is one of the sunniest major cities in Canada, with over 300 days of sunshine per year. It also experiences unique weather phenomena called Chinooks, warm, dry winds that can raise temperatures significantly in the winter, providing a welcome respite from the cold.

5. Lower Taxes: Compared to many other Canadian cities, Calgary residents benefit from lower property taxes, no property transfer taxes, and no provincial sales tax. This can result in significant savings.

Overall, Calgary is an excellent place for young families. It offers a high quality of life, affordability, and low taxes.

Metro Calgary Detached House Prices

Calgary house prices are exploring uncharted territory but may be losing steam. It is probably too early to make a call because prices typically soften between August and December.

Calgary's house prices stand out against the declining trend in other major Canadian cities like Vancouver and Toronto. Several factors contribute to this disparity:

1. Limited Supply: Calgary has experienced fewer active listings than other cities, leading to a shortage of available supply. On the other hand, Calgary has record-high home construction. As these homes are completed, they could ease the supply shortage.

2. Steady Demand: Calgary attracts new residents due to its relatively affordable housing and good job opportunities. This consistent demand puts further pressure on the already constrained supply.

3. Increased Investment: Assuming that the Canadian average of 20-30% of purchases made by investors are held in Calgary. These investors, attracted by higher rental yields compared to other cities, see Calgary as a lucrative market. A rental in Calgary generates twice the rental income per dollar spent on the home compared to Vancouver. Investor buying activity further reduces available housing for owner-occupiers and increases prices.

So, while other cities experience price corrections due to various factors, Calgary's housing market benefits from:

• Solid demand from new residents arriving from other provinces and abroad.

• Limited supply, creating competition and pushing prices up.

• Higher rental yields compared to other markets attract investors.

However, it's important to note that the market might eventually face correction if supply significantly increases or demand weakens – both are emerging trends this autumn.

Overall, Calgary's housing market presents a unique picture within the Canadian context. While external factors can influence it, understanding the local supply-demand dynamics, investor activity, and price comparisons is crucial for deciphering its trajectory.

Metro Calgary New Construction Home Prices

Prices of new homes have shot upward since May 2023. Based on economic fundamentals, they might hit a ceiling soon.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

New home construction is at record levels as developers sprint to bring new housing stock to the market. Property development is a fantastic business in Calgary, while developers struggle to sell new projects in Vancouver and Toronto.

Market Risk

Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, Calgary is at higher risk of a market correction.

Metro Calgary Condo Apartment Prices

Metro Calgary condo apartment values rose briskly in the Spring, similar to the detached house market, where prices have plateaued. Again, this isn’t unusual for this time of year.

A December 2022 CBC news report said that Calgary had attracted the attention of many Ontario real estate speculative investors. Lower price-to-rent ratios and landlord-friendly tenancy laws attract out-of-province investors, which might explain why the condo market has been hotter than the detached house market.

With more people working from home, we expect developers to begin marketing larger (i.e., 2—and 3-bedroom apartments) to meet buyer preferences. As the supply of more generous floor plans comes to the market, it may depress the values for small floor plan condos.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4 and 5-bedroom condos because:

• Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.

• Canadians who work from home need more room to segregate workspace from living space.

• Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).

• Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.

Metro Calgary Townhouse Prices

Very affordable for first-time homebuyers

Even in the current market conditions, a condo is well within reach for most Calgarians. A homebuyer household earning $99,000 (the median Metro Calgary household before-tax income) can get a $425,000 mortgage. That’s more than enough to buy a benchmark condo, but a house purchase is moving out of reach for most locals.

What about the rest of the West?

Read the Edmonton Home Price Forecast, Vancouver Home Price Forecast Forecast, and Okanagan Valley Home Price Forecast.

2. Where are Metro Calgary prices headed?

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for looking out toward 2027. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:

• Will the federal government’s recent migration policy pivot lead to a shrinking population?

• Will mortgage rates drop to the 2 to 3 percent range that Canadians have grown used to?

• Will Trump impose a 25% tariff on Canada, leading to a trade war and recession?

How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review several forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms, and we then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic predictions, and the average forecast. Want to learn more about real estate risk? We’ve written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Fitch Ratings Global Housing Forecast

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• Calgary Real Estate Board Forecast

3. Should you sell your Calgary property?

Tight supply in Calgary’s market gives sellers a negotiating advantage and the annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year.

Sellers should consult a mortgage broker early to prioritise flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller Guide.

4. Is this a good time to buy a Calgary home?

Prices typically weaken in the winter months, and, as expected, prices are trending downward. Will they bounce back this spring?

It's almost impossible to time the market perfectly. If you are buying your forever home and don't plan to sell for ten years, then the risks of buying now are lower.

Regardless, the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn.

If you are considering buying, be sure to drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don't bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.

Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• Housing construction booming in Calgary, city says (CTV News | Feb 06)

• Calgary home sales down 12% in January but still above seasonal average (BNN Bloomberg | Feb 03)

• Calgary housing market 'remains strong' despite slowed migration, tariff uncertainty: CREB 2025 forecast (MSN | Jan 22)

• Canada doesn’t need bigger cities to solve the housing crisis, report finds — it needs more cities (The Toronto Star | Jan 21)

• Canadians' financial stress ramping up despite interest rate cuts: MNP (BNN Bloomberg | Jan 13)

• Moving to Alberta is red-hot and Calgary is the leading Canadian city (Urbanized | Jan 13)

• Calgary residential property values soar by 15% in 1 year (Global News | Jan 10)

• Average asking rents declined to 17-month low across Canada at end of year: report (BNN Bloomberg | Jan 09)

• Canada’s housing markets see a mixed finish to 2024 (RBC Thought Leadership | Jan 08)

• Capital gains tax changes are in limbo. But the CRA is collecting new charges anyway (CBC | Jan 07)

• Canada could see a wave of mortgage renewals in 2025. Here is how some homeowners plan to navigate the payment shock. (CTV News | Jan 07)

• A strong year for sales and price growth in Calgary (Real Estate Magazine | Jan 03)

• Calgary home sales down in December but still above long-term trends (Financial Post | Jan 02)

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