Metro Vancouver
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• Metro Vancouver home values have been volatile since 2021, and are now trending downward.

• While industry experts saw signs of improvement in late 2024, conditions have since deteriorated.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Vancouver as a higher-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates have eased from their peak, but remain high relative to the 2010–2020 average, limiting buyer budgets.

• Economic uncertainty is rising due to Canada’s recent migration policy shift and the Trump administration’s tariffs, which could further weigh on the market.

This article covers:

1. What is the state of the Vancouver real estate market?

2. Which way are prices going?

3. Should I sell?

4. Is now a wise time to purchase?

1. Has the Vancouver Housing Market Been Going Up or Down?

Overview of the Vancouver Property Market

Metro Vancouver is a bustling region of 3 million people that has earned recognition as one of the top 100 cities in the world, coming in at number 50.

Vancouver is an attractive place to live for many reasons, including:

• Stunning Scenery: Vancouver is nestled between the Pacific Ocean and the North Shore Mountains, offering breathtaking views and easy access to both beaches and mountains. This means you can enjoy activities like skiing, hiking, kayaking, and swimming all in close proximity.  

• Green Spaces: The city is known for its abundance of parks and green spaces, including the iconic Stanley Park, one of the largest urban parks in North America.  

• Mild Climate: Compared to the rest of Canada, Vancouver enjoys a relatively mild climate with warm summers and mild, wet winters.  

• Multiculturalism: Vancouver is a diverse and multicultural city, with people from all over the world calling it home. This makes for a vibrant and welcoming atmosphere.  

• Outdoor Activities: With its proximity to both the ocean and the mountains, Vancouver is a paradise for outdoor enthusiasts. There are endless opportunities for hiking, skiing, snowboarding, kayaking, sailing, and more.

• Food Scene: Vancouver is a foodie paradise, with a diverse range of restaurants offering cuisines from all over the world.  

However, it's important to note that Vancouver is also an expensive city to live in, particularly when it comes to housing.

Overall, Vancouver is a great place for people of all ages and backgrounds to live. It offers a high quality of life, a vibrant culture, and a strong economy.

Supply levels have been higher than in previous years at this time of year. Buyers have a greater advantage, and sellers have less power in negotiations.

Metro Vancouver Detached House Prices

Since the peak in Spring 2022, house prices in Vancouver have resembled a roller coaster. The benchmark price fluctuated tens of thousands of dollars, up and down.

Demand (purchases) in Greater Vancouver is low. Many people want to buy a home, but affordability is so poor that would-be buyers have been sidelined.

New homebuyers can’t afford to get onto the first rung of the homeownership ladder, and high rates prevent existing owners from taking the next step. Fewer households that want to upgrade to a larger home can qualify for a new mortgage at the current rates.

The low supply of active listings mainly fueled price rises, but today, listings are running higher than they have been in the past three years.

Are you interested in specific areas of Metro Vancouver? Try these reports!

Metro Vancouver New Construction Home Prices

Prices of new homes have been falling. Based on economic fundamentals and slow pre-sales, they are unlikely to rise in the medium term.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

Pre-sales have collapsed, and Toronto is experiencing a similar issue. No new projects were released in January 2025, even with the Lunar New Year falling in late January. Looking back to 2018, an average of 750 units were released in January. The slowest January before 2025 was 2024, with 434 units released.

Undoubtedly, developers with upcoming projects are closely watching market activity to gauge demand and the success of incentives before refining their strategies and launching new projects in the coming months.

You might think you can negotiate developer price concessions in this type of market, and that is true; however, developers will resist straightforward price reductions.

They will try to refocus buyers on the project's location, value, amenities, and quality. If there are concessions, they are likely to first offer extras like an additional parking spot or storage locker, or upgrade to premium fixtures before resorting to a lower sale price.

Vancouver Property Market Risk

Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, Vancouver is at a high risk of a significant market correction.

Metro Vancouver Condo Apartment Prices

Like house prices, the Metro Vancouver benchmark apartment price is trending downward.

Purchases are picking up, but the increased demand is not keeping pace with sales listings while there is a record-breaking inventory level. Typically, these conditions lead to price concessions.

Supply varies greatly between Vancouver sub-regions. You can use this information to avoid the most brutal bidding wars.

With more people working from home or hybrid, we expect developers will begin marketing larger (i.e., 2 and 3 bedrooms) apartments to meet buyer preferences. As the supply of more generous floor plans comes to the market, it may depress the values for small floor plan condos.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4 and 5 bedroom condos because:

• Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.

• Canadians who work from home need more room to segregate workspace from living space.

• Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).

• Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.

Metro Vancouver Townhouse Prices

Still a challenge for first-time homebuyers

Vancouver home prices remain unaffordable for most residents. A first-time homebuyer household earning $75,000 (the median Metro Vancouver household before-tax income) can only get a $300,000 mortgage. To buy a benchmark priced $680,000 condo, a first-time homebuyer needs to save $380,000 cash for a down payment or receive a very generous gift from mom and dad. For most people, that’s just not on the cards.

What about the rest of BC?

Read the Victoria Forecast and Okanagan Forecast.

2. Where are Metro Vancouver home prices headed?

Factors Affecting Vancouver Real Estate

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for looking out toward 2027. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:

• Will the federal government’s recent migration policy pivot lead to a shrinking population?

• Will mortgage rates drop to the 2 to 3 percent range that Canadians have grown used to?

• Will Trump impose a 25% tariff on Canada, leading to a trade war and recession?

How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review various forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms. We then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic prediction, and the average forecast.

Would you like to learn more about real estate risk? We've written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Fitch Ratings Global Housing Forecast

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• C1 Central 1 B.C. Outlook

• BC Real Estate Association Forecast

Check out our mortgage interest rate forecast to see how rates may impact Vancouver’s market

3. Is it a good time to sell a home in Vancouver?

From a seller’s perspective, more changes in the market influence prices downward, so this year may be a better time to sell than in two years.

The annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year.

Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller’s Guide.

4. Is this a good time to buy a Vancouver property?

Prices have been falling, and supply is high, so prices could fall further. Mortgage rates are relatively high and falling. Also, the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn.

These factors would lead buyers to conclude that later in 2025 or 2026 will be a better time to buy than now.

It's almost impossible to time the market perfectly. However, if you are buying your forever home and don't plan to sell for ten years, the risks of buying now are lower than a year ago.

If you are considering buying, be sure to drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don't bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.

Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• Canada housing market unlikely to surge despite plunging interest rates (MPA | Mar 14)

• Millennials, gen Z in 'Goldilocks moment' to jump on Canada's property ladder (Financial Post | Mar 12)

• Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as country faces 'new crisis' from tariffs (CBC | Mar 12)

• Tariff worries push B.C. housing market lower amidst big sales drop (Urbanized | Mar 11)

• Vancouver home sales fall as market conditions more balanced in February: board (CTV News | Mar 04)

• Opinion: How U.S. tariffs could shake up B.C. real estate (VIA | Feb 16)

• B.C. real estate sales off to a stronger start in January 2025 (CTV News | Feb 13)

• Housing market faces “uncertainty” amid economic and geopolitical shifts: CMHC (REM | Feb 10)

• Trump tariffs like 'sword of Damocles' hanging over Vancouver real estate (BIV | Feb 07)

• Vancouver real estate market shifting as more sellers enter market, January sales up (CBC | Feb 05)

• How a trade war and U.S. tariffs could hit Canada’s housing market (Global News | Jan 29)

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