Metro Vancouver
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• Metro Vancouver home values have been volatile since 2021, and are now trending downward.

• While industry experts saw signs of improvement in late 2024, conditions have since deteriorated.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Vancouver as a higher-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates have eased from their peak, but remain high relative to the 2010–2020 average, limiting buyer budgets.

• Economic uncertainty is rising due to Canada’s recent migration policy shift and the Trump administration’s tariff threats, both of which could further weigh on the market.

This article covers:

1. What is the state of the Vancouver real estate market?

2. Which way are prices going?

3. Should I sell?

4. Is now a wise time to purchase?

1. What is the state of the Vancouver real estate market?

Overview of the Property Market

Metro Vancouver is a bustling city of 2.5 million people that has earned recognition as one of the top 100 cities in the world, coming in at number 50.

Vancouver is an attractive city to live in for many reasons, including:

• Stunning Scenery: Vancouver is nestled between the Pacific Ocean and the North Shore Mountains, offering breathtaking views and easy access to both beaches and mountains. This means you can enjoy activities like skiing, hiking, kayaking, and swimming all in close proximity.  

• Green Spaces: The city is known for its abundance of parks and green spaces, including the iconic Stanley Park, one of the largest urban parks in North America.  

• Mild Climate: Compared to the rest of Canada, Vancouver enjoys a relatively mild climate with warm summers and mild, wet winters.  

• Multiculturalism: Vancouver is a diverse and multicultural city, with people from all over the world calling it home. This makes for a vibrant and welcoming atmosphere.  

• Outdoor Activities: With its proximity to both the ocean and the mountains, Vancouver is a paradise for outdoor enthusiasts. There are endless opportunities for hiking, skiing, snowboarding, kayaking, sailing, and more.

• Food Scene: Vancouver is a foodie paradise, with a diverse range of restaurants offering cuisines from all over the world.  

However, it's important to note that Vancouver is also an expensive city to live in, particularly when it comes to housing.

Overall, Vancouver is a great place for people of all ages and backgrounds to live. It offers a high quality of life, a vibrant culture, and a strong economy.

Metro Vancouver Detached House Prices

Since the peak in Spring 2022, house prices in Vancouver have resembled a roller coaster. The benchmark price fluctuated between 300,000 and 100,000 dollars, up and down.

Demand (purchases) in Greater Vancouver is low. Many people want to buy a home, but affordability is so poor that would-be buyers have been sidelined.

New homebuyers can’t afford to get onto the first rung of the homeownership ladder, and high rates prevent existing owners from taking the next step. Fewer households that want to upgrade to a larger home can qualify for a new mortgage at the current rates.

The low supply of active listings mainly fueled price rises, but today, listings are running higher than they have been in the past three years.

Are you interested in specific areas of Metro Vancouver? Try these reports!

Metro Vancouver New Construction Home Prices

Prices of new homes have been flat. Based on economic fundamentals, they are unlikely to accelerate in the medium term.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

Presales have collapsed, and Toronto is experiencing a similar issue. No new projects were released in January 2025, even with the Lunar New Year falling in late January. Looking back to 2018, an average of 750 units were released in January. The slowest January before 2025 was 2024, with 434 units released.

Undoubtedly, developers with upcoming projects are closely watching market activity to gauge demand and the success of incentives before refining their strategies and launching new projects in the coming months.

You might think you can negotiate developer price concessions in this type of market, and that is true; however, developers will resist straightforward price reductions.

They will try to refocus buyers on the project's location, value, amenities, and quality. If there are concessions, they are likely to first offer extras like an additional parking spot or storage locker, or upgrade to premium fixtures before resorting to a lower sale price.

Market Risk

Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, Vancouver is at a high risk of a significant market correction.

Metro Vancouver Condo Apartment Prices

Like house prices, the Metro Vancouver benchmark apartment price is trending downward.

Purchases are picking up, but the increased demand is not keeping pace with sales listings while there is a record-breaking inventory level. Typically, these conditions lead to price concessions.

Supply varies greatly between Vancouver sub-regions. You can use this information to avoid the most brutal bidding wars.

With more people working from home or hybrid, we expect developers will begin marketing larger (i.e., 2 and 3 bedrooms) apartments to meet buyer preferences. As the supply of more generous floor plans comes to the market, it may depress the values for small floor plan condos.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4 and 5 bedroom condos because:

• Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.

• Canadians who work from home need more room to segregate workspace from living space.

• Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).

• Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.

Metro Vancouver Townhouse Prices

Still a challenge for first-time homebuyers

Vancouver home prices remain unaffordable for most residents. A first-time homebuyer household earning $75,000 (the median Metro Vancouver household before-tax income) can only get a $300,000 mortgage. To buy a benchmark priced $680,000 condo, a first-time homebuyer needs to save $380,000 cash for a down payment or receive a very generous gift from mom and dad. For most people, that’s just not on the cards.

What about the rest of BC?

Read the Victoria Forecast and Okanagan Forecast.

2. Where are Metro Vancouver home prices headed?

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for looking out toward 2027. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:

• Will the federal government’s recent migration policy pivot lead to a shrinking population?

• Will mortgage rates drop to the 2 to 3 percent range that Canadians have grown used to?

• Will Trump impose a 25% tariff on Canada, leading to a trade war and recession?

How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review various forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms. We then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic prediction, and the average forecast.

Would you like to learn more about real estate risk? We've written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Fitch Ratings Global Housing Forecast

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• C1 Central 1 B.C. Outlook

• BC Real Estate Association Forecast

3. Is it a good time to sell Vancouver real estate?

From a seller’s perspective, more changes in the market influence prices downward, so this year may be a better time to sell than in two years.

The annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year.

Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller’s Guide.

4. Is this a good time to buy a property?

Prices have been falling, but interest rates (borrowing costs) and supply are high, so prices could fall further. It's almost impossible to time the market perfectly. If you are buying your forever home and don't plan to sell for ten years, then the risks of buying now are lower.

Regardless, the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn.

If you are considering buying, be sure to drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don't bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.

Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• Trump tariffs like 'sword of Damocles' hanging over Vancouver real estate (BIV | Feb 07)

  Vancouver real estate market shifting as more sellers enter market, January sales up (CBC | Feb 05)

• Canada doesn’t need bigger cities to solve the housing crisis, report finds — it needs more cities (The Toronto Star | Jan 21)

• B.C. real estate braces for year of uncertainty (BIV | Jan 15)

• Metro Vancouver’s housing market worsens, now pricing out even high earners: report (CTV News | Jan 14)

• Canadians' financial stress ramping up despite interest rate cuts: MNP (BNN Bloomberg | Jan 13)

• Moving to Alberta is red-hot and Calgary is the leading Canadian city (Urbanized | Jan 13)

• Average asking rents declined to 17-month low across Canada at end of year: report (BNN Bloomberg | Jan 09)

• Canada’s housing markets see a mixed finish to 2024 (RBC Thought Leadership | Jan 08)

• Capital gains tax changes are in limbo. But the CRA is collecting new charges anyway (CBC | Jan 07)

• Canada could see a wave of mortgage renewals in 2025. Here is how some homeowners plan to navigate the payment shock. (CTV News | Jan 07)

• December uptick in Vancouver-area home sales caps 'pivot year' for market: real estate board (CBC | Jan 03)

• B.C.'s new property flipping tax is intended to discourage speculators. Some are skeptical (Vancouver Sun | Jan 01)

• Housing market poised for 2025 comeback as lower rates unleash pent-up demand (CTV News | Dec 30)

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