Metro Ottawa Home Price Forecast - July 2020
HIGHLIGHTS
The impact of Coronavirus on Metro Ottawa will likely be very significant but, with a large number of government jobs, it is less vulnerable than other cities.
Metro Ottawa benchmark homes have held their value, but the price of the median home purchase has dropped significantly. This is a sign that buyers are avoiding the top of the market.
Homebuyers stayed on the sidelines from March through May, but in June they jumped back into the market with both feet. In coming months we will learn if this is a trend or 3-months of backed-up demand piled into one month.
We are watching several key risks:
The possibility of a second wave and corresponding lockdown in Canada.
How well the U.S. manages the pandemic - roughly 25% of the Canadian economy relies on exports south of the border. As well, most tourists to Canada are American.
The impact of expiring eviction freezes and mortgage payment deferrals. These are delaying the true impact of the pandemic on housing. They can not be extended indefinitely.
This article covers:
Where are Metro Ottawa prices headed?
What factors drive the price forecast?
Should investors sell?
Is this a good time to buy?
1. Where are Metro Ottawa home prices headed?
Home Price Overview
Unfortunately for home buyers, Ottawa prices have accelerated significantly in the past few months.
People planning to sell their home will take heart in the fact that home values are at all time highs. Given the current recession and pandemic, sellers may want to push ahead and sell during the pandemic because there is no guarantee that home prices will regain the current highs any time soon.
A Coronavirus induced recession may inflict long-term economic damage and it is now the primary source of uncertainty for home values.
Metro Ottawa Detached House Prices
House price growth in Ottawa was accelerating in early 2020. The “soft landing” that government policymakers were targeting had become more elusive. We believe politicians were hoping to guide the market toward a typical annual real estate cycle with price growth in the range of 1 to 3% annually – in line with income growth.
Metro Ottawa Condo Apartment Prices
Metro Ottawa apartment prices have accelerated since 2017 and, today, a benchmark Metro Ottawa condo apartment is still affordable without help from family.
Entering the Coronavirus Recession, there is very little condo supply. When enough supply comes to market, the more expensive, higher quality, and larger (i.e., 2 and 3 bedrooms) apartments will drop in price, and this will depress the values downward for more modest condos.
At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like to see developers building more 4 and 5 bedroom condos. Not everyone can afford to put their family in a house, and for many parents work-related travel makes it difficult to stay on top of basic upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).
Still a challenge for first-time homebuyers
Ottawa house prices have become much less affordable. A homebuyer household earning $82,000 (the median Metro Ottawa-Gatineau household before-tax income) can get a $310,000 mortgage. That’s enough to buy a benchmark priced condo, but buying a house is out of reach for most locals.
2021 Metro Ottawa House Price Forecast
At the beginning of 2019, Royal LePage and RE/MAX predicted house prices in Metro Ottawa would rise only 4%. In the end, a benchmark Metro Ottawa house price rose by 12%!!!
For 2020, the average of the forecasts used in our analysis predicts a modest rise of 5% in 2020 and 4% in 2021. The lowest forecast predicted price growth of 3% and the most optimistic called for a 10% price appreciation.
A second wave containment effort?
Two key assumptions underpin the more optimistic home price forecasts:
COVID-19 control measures in in Canada will be gradually relaxed — but not eliminated entirely — over the remainder of 2020. There will not be a second or third “lockdown” in response to new waves of infection.
Unemployment will not exceed 15%.
At Mortgage Sandbox, we are placing greater emphasis on the forecasts that include a ‘second wave’ of infection.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, believes the second wave of coronavirus infections is ‘inevitable.’
A study headed by Dr. Kristine A. Moore, medical director at the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, warns that the pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to prepare for possible periodic resurgences of disease. Optimistically, a vaccine will not be widely available until mid-2021 and 70% of the population would need to be infected to provide herd immunity. Unfortunately, more than 30% of the population have conditions that make them vulnerable.
Forecast adjustment for COVID-19
In a presentation to the Federal Standing Committee on Finance on May 19th, CMHC’s CEO revealed that the agency now expects average Canadian home prices to fall between 9% and 18%.
In a March interview, Brendan LaCerda, a Senior Economist with Moody’s Analytics, estimates that each 1% rise in unemployment results in a 4% drop in home prices.
Using this ratio, a prolonged 2.5% rise in Ontario unemployment to 7.5% would result in a 10% price drop and a 5% rise in Ontario unemployment to 10% would lead to a 20% fall in values.
The ‘official’ unemployment figures unemployed people who are not looking for work (e.g., people who work in industries that have not fully reopened like tourism or hospitality). ‘True’ levels of unemployment are higher.
For a more thorough comparison of the Coronavirus Recession to the Great Recession and the Great Depression and their impacts on property prices, check out our recent article: “Should I sell my home today?”
At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because there are many risks in real estate that can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review a variety of forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms, and we then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic prediction, and the average forecast. Want to learn more about real estate risk? We've written a comprehensive report that explains the level of uncertainty in the Canadian real estate market.
Our forecast inputs:
2. What forces drive the price forecast?
Mortgage Sandbox 5 Forces Framework
At the highest level, supply and demand set house prices and all other factors simply drive supply or demand. At Mortgage Sandbox, we have created a five-factor framework for gathering information and performing our market analysis. The five key factors are core demand, non-core demand, government policy, supply, and popular sentiment.
In the long-run, the market is fundamentally driven by economic forces, but in the short-run, sentiment can drive prices beyond economically sustainable levels.
Below we will summarize how the five factors result in the current Ottawa forecast.
Core Demand
Core demand is a function of:
Population Growth: The pace at which people are moving to an area. An average of roughly 2.5 people live in one household.
Home Price Changes: Changes in the market value of the desired home.
Savings-Equity: How much disposable after-tax income you’ve been able to squirrel away plus any equity you have in your existing home.
Financing: Your maximum mortgage is calculated using income (i.e., how much money you can put toward mortgage payments) and interest rates (how big are the mortgage payments).
How have these changed lately?
Home Price Changes
Prices are rising across the Metro Ottawa-Gatineau. Prices growth reduces affordability and creates downward pressure on prices. As a rule-of-thumb, home ownership costs are considered unaffordable when they exceed 40% of household income.
In March 2020, Ottawa home ownership costs were 39% of the median household income. In other words, Ottawa home prices were hitting the maximum levels supported by economic fundamentals, in a low interest rate environment, before the impact of the Coronavirus.
Savings-Equity
Rents were rising faster than incomes, so first-time buyers struggled to come up with down payments.
To add insult to injury, the stock market has dropped dramatically because of the pandemic, so anyone who managed to save a down payment and invested it in ‘blue chip stocks’ may now find out they’ll need to save for a few more years.
Existing homeowners benefited from price appreciation, so they had more home equity to use when buying a bigger home. That price gain may be short-lived as the Coronavirus is likely to depress prices.
Financing
Median Ottawa incomes have not changed materially, but employment levels are dropping. To mitigate the impact, the Bank of Canada has reduced rates dramatically, but mortgage qualifying interest rates have not fallen nearly as much.
Job losses from Coronavirus containment efforts are a more powerful force than low mortgage rates. Without income, you can not qualify for a mortgage.
Canada shed nearly two million jobs in April, as the novel coronavirus pandemic tore through the Canadian economy. The official unemployment rate soared to 13% but it would have been 17.8% if the agency had included the 1.1 million Canadians who stopped looking for work — likely because the COVID-19 economic shutdown has limited job opportunities.
Overall Core Demand
Despite lower interest rates, due to the impacts of the Coronavirus, short-term core demand for homes will be much lower than it was in 2019.
Non-core Demand
This represents short-term investment, long-term investment, and recreational demand (i.e., homes not occupied full-time by the owner). Here is where foreign capital, real estate flippers, and dark money come into play. It also includes short-term rentals, long-term rentals, and recreational property purchases.
Since non-core demand is ‘optional’ (i.e., not used for to shelter your own family), it is more volatile than core demand.
Foreign Capital
Ontario implemented a 15% foreign buyer tax to reduce the distorting effect of Foreign Capital flows on local real estate.
Now with the travel bans that are part of Coronavirus containment efforts, we can expect there will be very little foreign investment in Canadian real estate.
Long-term Rentals
As it relates to our analysis, we expect domestic interest in long-term rental income properties will dry up so long as Coronavirus eviction bans are in place. The government has not developed an exit strategy for landlords with rent arrears when social isolation policies are lifted. How will tenants repay three to six months of rent arrears?
As well, recent reports of rents falling across Canada will discourage new rental investment until rental rates stabilize.
Rental investors will simply try to time any future property purchases for the end of Coronavirus containment period, and they will avoid properties with tenants who have outstanding rent arrears.
Short-term Rentals
We are watching short-term rentals closely because even though the Ontario government began allowing short-term rentals to re-open on June 5th, international travel bans will effectively shut down many short-term rentals for the next few months (Canada’s tourist high season). Cottage country will sigh with relief but the downtown Ottawa hosts will likely still have a rough summer.
House Flipping
With Coronavirus containment efforts underway, house flipping will be very risky so we expect serial flippers will stay out of the market until they see a bottom to the market.
It may be 6 months to a year before the market finds bottom and the flippers emerge to pick up some bargains.
Dark Money
Dark money is proceeds of crime or money that is transferred to Canada illegally. This includes money earned legitimately that is illegally transferred from countries with capital controls (e.g., China) and legitimate earnings moved from countries who are the subject of international sanctions (e.g., Iran, Russia, and North Korea).
In order to hide the illegal nature of the funds, it is laundered in the real estate market. Sometimes the true owner of the property is hidden by using a Straw Buyer and other times the property is owned by a shell company.
Sometimes a real estate agent or lawyer will accept the illegal cash to help the nefarious individuals hide its true origins. In 2015, a B.C. realtor was caught with hundreds of thousands of dollars in her closet, at home.
We see no evidence of a diminished role for dark money in local real estate.
Overall Non-core Demand
The net effect of all the recent changes will reduce inflows of capital toward residential real estate for non-core uses, and this will put downward pressure on Metro Ottawa home prices.
Government Policy
Governments were trying to engineer a ‘soft landing’, but now they are trying to protect against a housing crash by encouraging banks to allow borrowers to defer their mortgage payments up to six months.
Mortgage and Housing Agency Tightens Mortgage Rules
Effective July 1st, CMHC has made changes to their mortgage rules that disqualify roughly 10 percent of potential homebuyers with Fair-Poor credit. The remaining buyers who qualify for a mortgage will qualify for 10 to 8 percent less money.
The purpose of the change, is to protect taxpayers from having to cover the costs of bad loans.
COVID-19 Support Measures
Mortgage Payment Deferral
A typical mortgage deferral is an agreement between the borrower and the lender to pause or suspend mortgage payments for one or two months. For the Coronavirus, they have extended this for up to 6 months.
After the agreement ends, your mortgage payments return to normal. The mortgage payment deferral does not cancel, erase, or eliminate the amount owed on your mortgage. The borrower still accrues interest that will have to be paid.
A Canadian with a $250,000 mortgage who defers their mortgage by six months adds approximately $4,000 in accrued interest to their mortgage balance.
IMPORTANT: Statistics in May, show that 21 percent of Ontario mortgage holders applied for mortgage deferrals. Mortgage deferrals expire after 6 months and that means by October many of these deferrals will have expired. Unless these borrowers have found new work they will fall into default.
Eviction Bans and Suspensions
The Ontario government has suspended the enforcement of evictions indefinitely and Tribunals Ontario will not issue any new eviction orders until further notice. Sheriff's offices have been asked to postpone any scheduled enforcement of eviction orders.
Short-term Rental Regulation
As of 2019, roughly 6,000 Ottawa short-term rentals listed on platforms like Airbnb, and 1,300 “appear to be commercial or investment properties.”
At the end of 2019, the City of Ottawa laid plans for regulating short-term rentals. Here are the highlights:
Short-term rentals are allowed in principal residence only, and rentals in investment properties will be forbidden. This will affect the 1,300 ‘commercial operators’.
A short-term rental applies to any stay of 28 days or less.
Ottawa’s bylaw would include fines for different violations and also require short-term rental platforms to provide data about their hosts and listings on a regular basis.
Releasing Provincial Lands for Development
The provincial government is going to work with municipalities to reduce red tape and plans to sell up to 243 underutilized properties for redevelopment into housing but progress is slow. In January 2019, they sold some land in London. In April 2019, they sold a property in downtown Toronto that may create 700 homes.
Overall Government Influence
Overall, the government is now doing everything in its power to save lives while avoiding a property price crash. In a year or two, once, the COVID crisis has receded they will still be trying to bring affordability to the property market.
Supply
Supply comes from two sources.
Existing sales: Existing home sales are sales of ‘used homes’. They are homes owned by individuals who sell them to upgrade, to move for work, or some other reason. The Ottawa Real Estate Board only reports existing home sales.
Pre-Sales and Construction Completions: Most new homes are sold via pre-sales before the construction has started. These are predominantly apartments and townhomes. Data on pre-sales is private and difficult to find, but construction starts (reported by the government) are a very accurate lagging indicator of pre-sale activity.
Months of Supply of Existing Homes
The ratio of active listings to purchases can provide valuable insight into market conditions. Unfortunately, the Ottawa Real Estate Board does not publish the total number of active listings. Essentially, a market with 5 to 9 months of housing supply listed for sale is in a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct negotiating advantage. In a balanced market, home prices rise moderately in the springtime and usually dip in the winter, and year-over-year price increases tend to match rises in incomes (i.e., 1 to 2% annually).
Coronavirus short-term rentals sold or converted (short-term impact)
Travel bans will effectively shut down short-term rentals for the next few months (Canada’s tourist high season). The drop in bookings may force many owners of apartments primarily used as short-term rentals to sell their condo or repurpose it for long-term rentals adding up to 6,000 to 1,300 homes to the market in the next six months.
We surveyed over 50 Canadian real estate agents and 50% had observed a majority of short-term rentals being listed as long-term furnished apartment rentals and 25% expected AirBnBs owners would sell their homes to cash in the capital gains.
Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures
The most recent data indicates that more Canadians are missing their monthly payments, and job growth has been healthy. Some economists have been warning of a recession, and even without a recession, it appears more Canadians are over-extending themselves. Surprisingly, the increases in delinquencies are led by Ontario and British Columbia, and not Alberta.
According to Equifax, the credit bureau company:
“Mortgage delinquencies have also been on the rise. The 90-day-plus delinquency rate for mortgages rose to 0.18 percent, an increase of 6.7 percent from last year. Ontario (17.6%) led the increases in mortgage delinquency followed by British Columbia (15.6%) and Alberta (14.8%). The most recent rise in mortgage delinquency extends the streak to four straight quarters.”
A recent survey by MNP reported a staggering number of Canadians are stretched to their limits:
“Over 30 per cent of Canadians say they’re concerned that rising interest rates could push them close to bankruptcy, according to a nationwide survey conducted by Ipsos on behalf of MNP, one of the largest personal insolvency practices in the country.”
Job losses from Coronavirus containment will worsen this situation. Although the CMHC can help Canadians via Canadian lenders offering options to defer payments, re-amortize mortgages, add interest arrears to your mortgage balances. It will not help overextended Canadians from their credit card debt nor will it protect Canadians who chose to finance their homes with private mortgage lenders. According to the provincial regulator, private lending accounted for around eight percent, or $10.6 billion of all Ontario mortgage transactions reported in 2017 by brokerages..
Baby Boomers Right-sizing?
According to a recent survey, almost half (49 percent) of all Ontario Boomers respondents said they plan to move into a smaller home as they near or enter their golden years, the highest rate among all provinces surveyed.
Nationally, 86% of Boomers want to live in their home forever, but only 25% are on track with their retirement savings. If their home is their greatest asset, many will need to unlock the cash from their homes in order to make ends meet.
An RBC survey says, “Over the coming decade, we expect baby boomers to ‘release’ half a million homes they currently own—the result of the natural shrinking of their ranks, and their shift to rental forms of housing, such as seniors’ homes, for health or lifestyle reasons.”
We prefer the term '‘right-sizing’ because most boomers selling a house are buying luxury apartments with large floor plans in buildings with shared pools, saunas, gyms, and party rooms. That hardly sounds like a step down.
As baby boomers begin right-sizing and list their million-dollar homes for sale, they will add supply in what is considered the luxury market. If not enough Gen-X and millennial buyers are to buy these expensive homes, there is a risk that this may depress prices at the top of the market, which will then compress prices for townhomes and condo apartments.
In the near-term, supply is tight, but in the medium-term, there are risks of excess housing supply.
Pre-sales and Completions
New Construction
There is a record number of homes under construction in Ottawa, and many are nearing completion. As these buildings complete in 2021 and 2022, and people move out of their rental or sell their current home, there will be new supply which should alleviate some of the pressure in the market.
Pre-sales
Metro Ottawa pre-sales, which are purchases of brand-new homes from developers. Typically, a developer must sell 70% of homes in a building before they can starts construction so housing starts are a good indicator of successful pre-sales.
Pre-sales were strong at the beginning of 2020 but we expect they will trend down as showrooms close during the pandemic. When social distancing measures are lifted developers will likely try to entice buyers with price discounts, move-in allowances, and cool amenities!
Popular Sentiment
There's no way of predicting popular sentiment, but as witnessed in the past two years, sentiment can shift quickly.
If cases in Ontario begin to rise again, then we can expect sentiment to worsen. In the short-term, we expect buyers will hold back while many sellers will move forward.
If cases in Ontario continue to rise then we can expect sentiment to worsen. In the short-term we expect buyers will hold back while many sellers will move forward.
The Nanos Canadian Confidence Index has shown a noticeable drop in confidence. “Consumer confidence among Canadians remains net negative but continues to be on the rise.’ It is still well below the low that was reached during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
3. Should Investors Sell?
From a seller’s perspective, there are more changes in the market that influence prices downward so now may be a better time to sell than in two years and the annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year.
With Coronavirus containment efforts, open houses may be impossible. However, you can get a Realtor to help you plan small repairs and improvements to your home so that it will be ready when the real estate market thaws.
Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.
Planning to Sell? Check our our Complete Home Seller’s Guide.
4. Is this a good time to buy?
With accelerating prices, some homebuyers who took a cautious wait-and-see approach in 2019 may have been priced out of the market.
Prices are still trending upward, but Coronavirus containment efforts pull prices down. It is likely that prices will be lower in 2021. Keep in mind that the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer.
The wild card is the Coronavirus. At this stage, it's difficult to determine how much it will impact the market.
If you are thinking of buying, just be sure to drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as you can. As well, when it comes to financing, don't bite off more than you can chew.
Planning to Buy? Check our our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!
Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:
Four in 10 (44%) Ontarians’ Work Situation Affected By Pandemic (MNP, Jun 22)
High unemployment, lower immigration to restrain Canada housing market (Reuters, June 24)
Toronto Real Estate | Growing Population and Low Inventory Persist (RE/MAX, June 17)
Home price declines will likely depend on unemployment rate: Former CMHC chair (Bloomberg, Jun 8)
Five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada falls to 1.99% for first time (Financial Post, Jun 8)
CMHC draws fire for tightening mortgage rules (Bloomberg, Jun 4)
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