Metro Calgary 2024 Market Recap and Outlook to 2027

A Strong Year, but Clouds Loom on the Horizon

As 2024 draws to a close, Metro Calgary’s real estate market stands as a testament to the resilience of Canadian property markets in the post-pandemic era. Purchase and sales activity in 2024 remained robust compared to pre-pandemic levels, continuing to reflect the sustained demand for homes in Calgary. However, a closer look reveals a market that, while still strong, is showing signs of fatigue.

A Cooling Market

Despite its solid performance, 2024’s sales were lower than in each of the previous three years, suggesting that the frenetic pace of recent years may be subsiding.

This cooling trend was particularly pronounced in the detached house market, which has borne the brunt of the slowdown. Although October saw a brief uptick in activity, this proved to be fleeting.

The median and benchmark house prices in Metro Calgary have risen dramatically over the past few years, climbing from below $500,000 in 2020 to over $700,000 today. This surge has likely outstripped demand, and prices peaked in mid-2024 before entering a gradual decline.

By year-end, the market had roughly two months of supply for detached houses, signaling a seller’s market, yet prices continue to soften—a paradox that reflects shifting market dynamics.

Condo Apartment Market Resilience

The condominium segment fared somewhat better, demonstrating greater resilience throughout 2024. Nevertheless, it too experienced a slowdown in the latter half of the year.

Condo apartment listings have accumulated, and prices have remained flat since mid-year. With approximately three months of supply on the market at year-end, the condo sector also remains a seller’s market, but like detached homes, prices have begun to edge downward.

The Role of Mortgage Rates

Qualifying five-year fixed mortgage rates, a critical factor in housing affordability, are expected to remain near current levels for the next two years. This prolonged stability could usher in a period of stagnant property prices. The days of rapid appreciation appear to be behind us, with Calgary entering an era of more measured growth—if not outright stagnation.

Risks on the Horizon

Several risks could weigh heavily on Calgary’s housing market in the coming years.

Record Construction Levels: A surge in construction projects, slated for completion over the next two years, is expected to add significant supply to the market. This influx could tip the balance from a seller’s market to a balanced or even a buyer’s market.

Slower In-Migration: Calgary has been a magnet for Canadians fleeing the high costs of Toronto and Vancouver, but recent federal cuts to immigration may improve affordability in these cities, stemming the flow of new residents to Alberta.

Employment Challenges: Alberta’s full-time employment growth has stalled, and Calgary and Edmonton now lead the country in unemployment rates.

Calgary’s unemployment rate has risen from near 5 percent in 2022 to 7.9 percent in November 2024.

If unemployment continues to climb, Moody’s Analytics estimates that each 1 percent increase in unemployment could result in a 4 percent decline in property prices. A 12 percent correction could be on the horizon if current trends persist.

Limited Upside

On the bright side, mortgage rates have receded from their peak, offering some relief to prospective buyers. However, borrowing costs remain high compared to the pre-2022 decade, and property prices in Calgary have reached uncharted territory. While still more affordable than Toronto and Vancouver, Calgary’s market dynamics are distinct, and prices may have overshot during the post-pandemic boom.

Caution Advised

For those looking to purchase a home to live in, these trends should not necessarily deter them. Calgary remains an attractive place to settle. However, for investors seeking high returns with minimal risk, caution is warranted. The days of easy gains may be over, and the market’s trajectory suggests that the years ahead could bring a more subdued performance.

As Calgary’s market transitions, the outlook to 2027 appears to be one of moderation, marked by careful recalibration in the face of evolving economic and demographic realities. Investors and homeowners alike would do well to keep a close eye on the city’s shifting fortunes.