Metro Victoria 2024 Property Market Recap and Outlook
An Uneven Landscape for a Coastal Market
Metro Victoria's property market in 2024 showcased a mixed performance, balancing on the edge of recovery while weighed down by lingering weaknesses from the pandemic era. When juxtaposed with pre-pandemic activity, 2024 purchase and sales volumes remained tepid, yet the year mirrored trends seen in 2022 and 2023, hinting at a market quietly regaining its footing.
The detached housing segment emerged as the most promising performer, offering a glimpse of resilience amid broader malaise. From October to year-end, detached house purchases aligned with the robust pace of 2021—a banner year for the market. Despite this late-year rally, structural shifts in the market were evident. In 2016, detached homes constituted 55% of purchases, a share that has since declined to 47%, underscoring a gradual transformation of Victoria's housing landscape into one where luxury detached properties play a more constrained role.
Motivated Sellers Propel Detached Home Market
The renewed interest in detached homes appears fueled by motivated sellers willing to accept lower offers because their homes failed to sell in the summer, a reflection of subdued confidence.
The benchmark price for detached homes remained flat since mid-year, while the median price trended downward, suggesting a tempered appetite among buyers.
Despite roughly 3.5 months of supply—a marker of a seller’s market—the market is precariously close to balance, a state it has flirted with since 2022. Active listings, meanwhile, sit at levels that eclipse those seen over the past three years, adding further complexity to the equation.
Condo Market Lags Behind
The condo apartment segment painted a more subdued picture in 2024. While the second half of the year showed some improvement, the recovery was markedly weaker compared to detached homes.
Listings have steadily accumulated, and prices have trended gently downward for most of the year. With 4.5 months of supply by year-end, condos technically remain in a seller’s market, but this status belies a narrative of rising inventory and softening prices.
The Road Ahead: Stagnation or Shift?
Looking toward 2026, the Victoria market is likely to contend with a prolonged period of stagnant prices. Mortgage rates, though off their peaks, remain high relative to the pre-2022 era, constraining affordability.
Several headwinds loom large:
A Wave of New Supply
Record levels of construction are underway, with completions expected over the next two years. This influx could tip the market into a balanced or buyer’s territory.
Immigration Policy Shifts
In 2023, Victoria welcomed 6,610 international migrants and 1,796 new residents from other parts of British Columbia. However, federal cuts to immigration targets may temper demand, raising questions about whether the city can sustain price growth without the pressure of high migration.
Public Sector Risks
During the pandemic, Victoria's economy benefited from an expansion in government employment. A potential retrenchment in public service roles could disproportionately impact the local market.
Few Upside Catalysts
Victoria remains more affordable than Vancouver, but borrowing costs continue to weigh heavily on buyers. The city’s real estate market, though unique in its dynamics, may have overshot during the post-pandemic boom, leading to a recalibration.
For prospective homeowners, the takeaway is nuanced. While current conditions may not deter those seeking a primary residence, investors banking on high returns should tread cautiously. With mortgage rates unlikely to drop significantly and a host of supply and demand-side uncertainties in play, Victoria’s market in the near term looks less like a high-yield asset and more like a lesson in moderation.
