Metro Hamilton
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

• Metro Hamilton home values have been volatile since 2021, and are now trending downward.

• Hamilton’s months of inventory are trending from a seller's market to a balanced market—the most supply since 2018.

• Multi-factor analysis identifies Metro Hamilton as a moderate-risk real estate market.

• Mortgage rates have eased from their peak but remain high relative to the 2010–2020 average, limiting buyer budgets.

• Economic uncertainty is rising due to Canada’s recent migration policy shift and the Trump administration’s tariffs, which could further weigh on the market.

This article covers:

1. What is the state of the Hamilton property market?

2. Where are prices headed?

3. Should investors sell?

4. Is this a good time to buy?

1. What is the state of the Metro Hamilton property market?

Hamilton Property Market Overview

Metro Hamilton, Ontario, has a population of approximately 600,000 and is a dynamic city known for its industrial heritage, growing economy, and vibrant cultural scene.

• Thriving Job Market: Hamilton has undergone a significant economic transformation in recent years. While its economy was once heavily reliant on steel and manufacturing, it now boasts a diverse job market, including strengths in healthcare, education, technology, and the arts. With major employers like Hamilton Health Sciences and McMaster University, job opportunities are on the rise.

• High Quality of Life: Hamilton offers an affordable cost of living compared to other major Ontario cities, making it an attractive option for families and young professionals. The city is known for its close-knit communities and a balance of urban amenities and access to nature.

• Access to Nature: Often referred to as the "City of Waterfalls," Hamilton is surrounded by natural beauty, with over 100 waterfalls, extensive hiking trails, and the scenic Niagara Escarpment. The city's parks and proximity to the waterfront provide ample opportunities for outdoor activities year-round.

• Education Hub: Home to McMaster University, one of Canada’s top universities, and Mohawk College, Hamilton is a center of higher education and research, offering numerous opportunities for students and professionals looking to advance their education.

• Cultural & Historical Appeal: Hamilton boasts a growing arts and culture scene, with vibrant music venues, galleries, and annual festivals. The city’s history as an industrial powerhouse is reflected in its unique architecture and museums, including the Canadian Warplane Heritage Museum and the Royal Botanical Gardens.

• Diverse & Expanding Community: Hamilton's multicultural population is reflected in its diverse neighbourhoods, restaurants, and cultural festivals. The city’s inclusivity and welcoming atmosphere make it a great place for newcomers from all walks of life.

• Efficient Transportation: Hamilton is well-connected by public transportation, with an expanding light rail transit (LRT) system in development and easy access to major highways, making commuting to nearby cities like Toronto and Niagara Falls convenient.

Overall, Hamilton offers a thriving job market, a strong sense of community, a rich cultural landscape, and abundant green spaces, making it an ideal city for families, students, and professionals seeking a balanced and affordable lifestyle.

Statistics Canada defines Metro Hamilton as the cities of Hamilton, Burlington, and Grimsby.

The Metro Hamilton housing market is a seller’s market, and sellers have the upper hand in negotiations. However, inventory levels have improved in favour of buyers. Months of inventory increased from 2.3 to 4.4 compared to last year, up 91 percent.

Metro Hamilton Detached House Prices

Since peaking in the spring of 2022, housing Metro Hamilton demand has collapsed. While prices initially rebounded due to constrained supply, a steady rise in inventory in recent months suggests the market may shift once again.

We believe politicians are implementing policies to guide the market toward a typical annual real estate cycle with price growth of 1 to 3% annually – in line with income growth.

Demand (i.e., purchases) in Hamilton is low. Many people want to buy a home, but affordability is so poor that would-be buyers have been sidelined.

New homebuyers can’t afford to get on the first step of the homeownership ladder, and households who want to climb the next rung (i.e., upgrade to a larger home) can’t qualify for a new mortgage at the current rates.

Meanwhile, the total active listings are trending upward. They are at their highest level in three years.

Hamilton-Burlington New Construction Home Prices

Prices of new homes are dropping. Some homeowners in new developments who locked in a purchase price in 2022 might find they will have paid much more than their newest neighbours. Based on economic fundamentals, this trend is likely to continue.

As a pre-sale buyer, be sure to demand a discount.

Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes

Although the market is softening and new construction starts have begun to slow, there is enough in the pipeline to provide a steady stream of new stock until early 2026.

Market Risk

Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, Hamilton is at moderate risk of a significant market correction.

Metro Hamilton Condo Apartment Prices

After breaking records during the pandemic, Metro Hamilton apartment prices are flat or falling.

With more people working from home, we expect developers will begin marketing larger (i.e., 2 and 3 bedrooms) apartments to meet buyer preferences. As the supply of more generous floor plans comes to the market, it may depress the values for small floor plan condos.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4 and 5 bedroom condos because:

• Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.

• Canadians who work from home need more room to segregate workspace from living space.

• Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).

• Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.

Metro Hamilton Townhouse Prices

Still a challenge for first-time homebuyers

It is still quite challenging for first-time homebuyers in Hamilton. The city's housing prices have become much less affordable. A household with a first-time homebuyer earning $91,000 (the median before-tax income in Metro Hamilton) can secure a $320,000 mortgage. With a $80,000 down payment, they would only be able to purchase a home valued at $400,000. However, the benchmark price for a condo apartment is over $500,000. This means that in order to buy a typical condo apartment, a household would need to receive an inheritance or a very generous gift from family, which is not feasible for most people.

What about the rest of Canada?

Read the Toronto Forecast, London Ontario, Montreal Forecast and the Vancouver Forecast.

2. Metro Hamilton House Price Forecast

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for looking out toward 2027. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:

• Will the federal government’s recent migration policy pivot lead to a shrinking population?

• Will mortgage rates drop to the 2 to 3 percent range that Canadians have grown used to?

• Will Trump impose a 25% tariff on Canada, leading to a trade war and recession?

How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.

At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review various forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms, and we then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic prediction, and the average forecast.

Do you want to learn more about real estate risk? We've written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.

Our forecast inputs:

• CMHC Housing Outlook

• Fitch Ratings Global Housing Forecast

• Reuters Housing Forecast Poll

• Royal LePage House Price Forecast

• RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook

• Canadian Real Estate Association Quarterly Forecast

• RBC Home Resale and Price Forecast

• TD Bank Economic Housing Outlook

• BMO Housing Outlook

• C1 Central 1 Ontario Outlook

3. Is this a good time to sell a Hamilton property?

From a seller’s perspective, more changes in the market influence prices downward, so this year may be a better time to sell than in two years.

The annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year.

Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritize flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.

Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller’s Guide.

4. Is this a good time to buy a home in Hamilton?

Prices have been falling, and supply is high, so prices could fall further. Mortgage rates are relatively high and falling. Also, the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer and autumn.

These factors would lead buyers to conclude that later in 2025 or 2026 will be a better time to buy than now.

It's almost impossible to time the market perfectly. However, if you are buying your forever home and don't plan to sell for ten years, the risks of buying now are lower than a year ago.

If you are considering buying, be sure to drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don't bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.

Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!

Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:

• Canada housing market unlikely to surge despite plunging interest rates (MPA | Mar 14)

• Millennials, gen Z in 'Goldilocks moment' to jump on Canada's property ladder (Financial Post | Mar 12)

• Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as country faces 'new crisis' from tariffs (CBC | Mar 12)

• Housing market faces “uncertainty” amid economic and geopolitical shifts: CMHC (REM | Feb 10)

• Tariff threat, recession fears will slow Toronto’s real estate market, experts say (The Toronto Star | Feb 06)

• Toronto home sales expected to rise 12% this year, but board says January saw drop (CBC | Feb 06)

• Buyers’ market: Toronto-area January home sales down nearly 8 per cent year-over-year as prices creep up (The Toronto Star | Feb 05)

• How a trade war and U.S. tariffs could hit Canada’s housing market (Global News | Jan 29)

• Toronto's condo rental market spiked in 2024, data shows (RENX | Jan 22)

• Canada doesn’t need bigger cities to solve the housing crisis, report finds — it needs more cities (The Toronto Star | Jan 21)

• Toronto new condo sales fall to 28-year low as investors retreat (BNN Bloomberg | Jan 16)

• Interest rates are falling. Why is Hamilton’s housing market still sluggish? (The Hamilton Spectator | Jan 07)

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