Metro London, Ontario
Real Estate Trends and Price Forecast
HIGHLIGHTS
Home values in Metro London have been volatile in recent years, see-sawing up and down. However, the broader trend since 2022 has been downward.
Industry experts declared that market conditions were improving early in the year compared to 2023, but that’s no longer true.
A multi-factor analysis identifies Metro London as a moderate-risk real estate market.
Budgets for home purchases are under strain due to the significant increase in mortgage rates since their historical lows.
Purchases in the first half of 2024 are almost as low as last year and far below the long-term average.
This article covers:
What is the state of the London property market?
Where are prices headed?
Should investors sell?
Is this a good time to buy?
1. What is the state of the London property market?
Home Price Overview
The pandemic turbocharged the Metro London housing market, driving up prices at a remarkable pace and causing aspiring homeowners to be pushed further away from their dreams. And just when they thought things couldn't get trickier, rising interest rates now force even more potential buyers to sit on the sidelines.
For those contemplating selling their homes, waiting until next Spring might bring some advantages if you aren’t in a hurry. Spring is the best time to sell because there is typically less supply. Buyer activity in Canada typically peaks in May. Families like to move over the summer so their kids don’t need to switch schools in the middle of the year. This is the typical annual real estate cycle.
Prospective homebuyers might consider waiting for a lighter mortgage burden. Mortgage rates are relatively high but are expected to fall in late 2024. Patience will be needed because forecasters keep revising their predictions, pushing out the date when they expect rates to drop.
The market fundamentals are riddled with risk and uncertainty as consumer sentiment has taken a substantial hit. But remember, consumer sentiment can be volatile and is an unreliable predictor of future price trends.
The real estate statistics for Metro London include St. Thomas, Middlesex, and Elgin Counties.
Metro London Detached House Prices
House prices in London have fallen significantly since the peak in spring 2022. Government intervention successfully shielded the real estate market from the pandemic-induced recession, but now higher interest rates are weighing on the market.
We believe politicians hope to guide the market toward a typical annual real estate cycle with price growth of 1% to 3% annually— in line with income growth.
Purchases in London are low. Many people want to buy a home, but affordability is very low, and this is reflected in the number of successful purchases. Significantly fewer people can realize their homeownership dream in these market conditions.
New homebuyers can’t afford to get onto the first rung of the homeownership ladder, and high rates prevent existing owners from taking the next step. Fewer households that want to upgrade to a larger home can qualify for a new mortgage at the current rates.
Meanwhile, the total active listings are trending upward. House listings are at their highest level in five years, and condo apartment listings are at record levels.
Metro London New Construction Home Prices
Prices of new homes have been falling consistently, and some homebuyers might find they will have paid much more than the most recent buyers in their development. Based on economic fundamentals, they will likely continue to drop.
As a pre-sale buyer, be sure to demand a discount.
Does this concern you? Read the Pros and Cons of Buying Pre-sale Homes
Even though the market has softened, pre-sales are still consistent with previous years, except for 2021, and the pipeline of new housing under construction is still strong.
Market Risk
Based on Mortgage Sandbox Analysis, London is at moderate risk of a significant market correction.
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Metro London Condo Apartment Prices
After breaking records during the pandemic, Metro London apartment prices are flat.
With more people working-from-home, we expect developers will begin marketing larger (i.e., 2 and 3 bedrooms) apartments to meet buyer preferences. As the supply of more generous floor plans comes to the market, it may depress the values for small floor plan condos.
At Mortgage Sandbox, we would like developers to build 4 and 5 bedroom condos because:
Not everyone can afford to buy a house for their family.
Canadians who now work from home need more room to segregate workspace from living space within their homes.
Many Canadians with longer working hours find it challenging to stay on top of necessary house upkeep (i.e., mowing lawns, clearing eaves, shovelling sidewalks).
Many people prefer to live in higher-density neighbourhoods with all the essential amenities within walking distance.
Metro London Townhouse Prices
Still a challenge for first-time homebuyers
London house prices have become much less affordable. A homebuyer household earning $75,500 (the median Metro London household before-tax income) can get a $310,000 mortgage. That’s enough to buy a benchmark condo, but buying a house is out of reach for more than 70% of locals.
Houses are for the rich, but most of the land is zoned for single-family detached houses. 🤔
What about other parts of Ontario?
Read the Toronto Forecast, Ottawa Forecast and the Hamilton Forecast.
1. Where are prices headed?
There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2026. Many of the forecasters we've surveyed have different expectations for:
Will the federal government achieve its aggressive immigration targets?
There is no consensus among economists.
How do we arrive at our forecast range? Check out our full assessment of the five factors that drive these forecasts. These five forces help explain why several forecasters are anticipating price drops.
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At Mortgage Sandbox, we provide a price range rather than attempting a single prediction because many real estate risks can impact prices. Risks are events that may or may not happen. As a result, we review various forecasts from leading lenders and real estate firms, and we then present the most optimistic estimates, the most pessimistic prediction, and the average forecast.
Do you want to learn more about real estate risk? We've written a comprehensive report explaining the uncertainty level in the Canadian real estate market.
Our forecast inputs:
Mortgage Renewal?
Refinance?
Our platform helps you find local pre-screened mortgage brokers.
3. Should Investors Sell?
From a seller’s perspective, more changes in the market influence prices downward so now may be a better time to sell than in two years, and the annual real estate cycle usually favours sellers in the first half of the year.
Sellers should always consult a mortgage broker early to prioritise flexible loan conditions and reduce the risk of mortgage cancellation penalties. Find out more about the benefits of a mortgage broker.
Planning to Sell? Check out our Complete Home Seller’s Guide.
Fixed or Variable rate mortgage?
Find out where mortgage rates are headed before you start to negotiate.
4. Is this a good time to buy?
It’s hard to say. Prices have been falling, but interest rates (borrowing costs) are high, so prices could fall further. It's almost impossible to time the market. If you are buying your forever home and don't plan to sell for ten years, then the risks of buying now are lower.
Regardless, the annual real estate cycle usually favours buyers in late summer.
If you are considering buying, be sure to drive a hard bargain and pay as close to market value as possible. Also, don't bite off more than you can chew when it comes to financing.
Planning to Buy? Check out our Complete Home Buyer’s Guide so we can walk you through the end-to-end process and get you ready to buy your new home!
How much home can you afford?
Our mortgage calculator takes uses up-to-date mortgage rates and calculates the price of a home you could afford.
Here are some recent headlines you might be interested in:
Condo rents in Toronto region dip for first time in 3 years | BNN Bloomberg
Toronto newcomers paying up to 12 months' rent up front to secure housing | CBC News
Sales of new and presale condos plummet in the GTHA, data firm says | CBC News
Wave of mortgage renewals drives owners to list homes, analysts say | Global News
Supply in Canada's property market surges as mortgage renewals loom | Reuters
Young People in Canada Are Trading Toronto for Cheaper Suburbs and Cities | Bloomberg
‘It’s crickets’: How sellers are getting creative in a slow housing market | Global News
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