All in Toronto
Many people have come to believe that buying a home is a “no-brainer” way to make hundreds of thousands of dollars with very little risk. House values are at record highs and the Canadian economy is at risk of a Financial Crisis, so there is more risk in real estate than people realize.
Canadian condos have shown tremendous price growth since 2016 but it is uncertain how much price growth potential remains in condos. Some major Canadian banks have forecast the real estate market in Vancouver and Toronto will hit a tipping point by the end of 2019. As the impact of interest rate increases, government regulation, and taxes work their way through the market toward the middle of 2018 the accuracy of these forecasts will be revealed.
The recent constitutional changes in China may create uncertainty for citizens and the future prospects for their children. They also cast doubt on the future for Hong Kong’s democratic institutions. This may lead to more capital flowing into Canadian real estate.
A mortgage regulatory change that hasn’t been talked about much in the media but it will likely impact Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, and Hamilton, especially if condo prices continue to climb. It asks lenders to loan less in markets with high property value risk.
In the past year detached home prices have drifted downward in Toronto and Vancouver while condo prices have surged, so the price gap between the two has narrowed. At the end of this article we explain our belief that now may be the best time to trade in your condo or townhome for a detached home.
The consensus seems to be that 2018 will experience a drop in detached home prices while condo prices rise.
The new mortgage stress test which came into effect January 1st makes it more difficult for Canadians to qualify for a mortgage, and the combination of rising rates and the new stress tests could force home buyers to come up with significantly higher down payments than 2017.
