Will Canadian Immigration Targets Lead to a Population Boom?
Hopefully, but don’t bank on it.
The Canadian government does not have a precise figure on how many immigrants have arrived in Canada so far in 2020 but says it's on track for roughly 170,000 (half of its annual target.
On Oct 30, the federal government announced plans to bring in more than 1.2 million immigrants over the next three years. Canada aims to bring 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021, 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023.
Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino said he's confident the government can meet the immigration targets despite the global pandemic by working around travel restrictions while adhering to safety measures such as mandatory quarantines.
Even though unemployment remains high across Canada, he said the government will attract workers to fill labour gaps in regions facing sector shortages.
Critics of the plan say the plan is unrealistic because it depends on borders reopening in January 2021. As we enter wave 2, reopening the border seem unlikely to occur until mid-2021 and that implies that immigration in 2021 will be closer to 200,000. Well below the targeted 401,000.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, has warned of a long, slow recovery as successive rounds of COVID-19 lead to a "scarring" of the Canadian economy. High unemployment and a battered economy may reduce Canada's capacity to absorb and find jobs for new immigrants.
The Pandemic will push the population bulge out to at least 2022. If high unemployment makes Canada less attractive to new immigrants then it may take longer to match and surpass 2019 immigration levels.
