Mid-Year Update: B.C. Home Price Forecast to End of 2019
Every quarter, we summarize the various forecasts and provide additional insight into what to expect and why. Some major Canadian financial institutions and real estate boards have released updated mid-year forecasts and most expect prices to rise over the next 18 months but sales volume, already significantly lower than previous years, is set to continue dropping.
RBC has a very different perspective than other economists, with both their home price and mortgage rate forecast signalling a rise followed by a drop. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised their forecast from earlier this year to show significantly lower sales activity, they now predict 11% fewer homes to be sold in 2018 compared to 2017.
BC Price Forecasts
BC Price Forecast |
2018F |
2018 YoY Change |
2019F |
2019 YoY Change |
RBC |
$828,600 |
5.2% |
$818,100 |
- 1.3% |
BC REA |
$745,600 |
5.1% |
$775,900 |
4.1% |
Central 1 |
$532,000 |
6.4% |
$545,000 |
2.4% |
CREA |
$733,900 |
3.4% |
$747,100 |
1.8% |
Good for buyers | Good for sellers |
Though prices are continuing to rise, most of the upward pressure is due to townhouse and condo price growth. Those hoping that new BC NDP Housing Strategy measures would result in a price correction are likely disappointed that the only major effect thus far has been slower price growth and reduced total sales volume. Nevertheless, many of the government measures have not yet come into effect so uncertainty in the market will likely persist.
From the chart below, it is worth noting that single detached home prices have levelled off (and even dropped slightly) since the peak last August. The chart also neatly demonstrates the growth of condo prices in comparison to those of single detached homes. Since August 2017, the gap between the price of a condo vs a detached home has closed by almost $100k.
Greater Vancouver Home Prices - By Type
Home Type |
2017 Benchmark Price |
2018F |
YoY Change |
2019F |
YoY Change |
All |
$ 1,031,546 |
$1,080,000 |
4.7% |
$1,104,900 |
2.3% |
Detached Home |
$ 1,752,247 |
$ 1,720,000 |
- 1.8% |
$ 1,730,000 |
0.6% |
Townhouse |
$ 861,393 |
$ 960,300 |
11.5% |
$ 1,004,500 |
4.2% |
Apartment |
$ 647,651 |
$ 754,000 |
15% |
$ 776,300 |
4.2% |
Home Type |
2017 Benchmark Price |
2018F |
YoY Change |
2019F |
YoY Change |
All |
$ 732,762 |
$ 787,900 |
9% |
$1,104,900 |
3.6% |
Detached Home |
$ 1,133,226 |
$ 1,160,967 |
5% |
$ 1,730,000 |
1.6% |
Townhouse |
$ 599,830 |
$ 674,433 |
13% |
$ 1,004,500 |
3.9% |
Apartment |
$ 396,225 |
$ 465,653 |
18% |
$ 776,300 |
4.3% |