Canadian Living in 2030: Electric Vehicle Chargers in Every Home
In this report we will answer:
Why will electric vehicles and charging stations become the new norm?
What are the 7 key considerations for choosing how to charge your electric vehicle?
What are the pros and cons of the different types of charging solutions?
Our prediction for the future of charging
Why will electric vehicles and charging stations become the new norm?
Electric vehicles (EV) are expected to overtake combustion engine cars in 20 years. In the future, with this pace of adoption, we believe Canadians will no longer fuel their vehicles at gas stations—instead, electric vehicle charging stations will become the new norm.
Before we dive too far into the future, let’s first look at the history of electric vehicles and charging systems.
The origin of electric vehicles and charging systems dates all the way back to the late 1800s. Interestingly, the charging solutions for electric vehicles of the past were much like what we use today. The majority were charged by cables running from wall mounted charging stations plugged directly into car batteries. Others simply swapped exhausted batteries with fully charged battery packs.
The success of mass production led to the dominance of the Ford Model T and the virtual extinction of electric vehicles in the 1930s. We can’t help but wonder how different the world would look today if an electric vehicle manufacturer had invented mass production.
During the 1970s oil crisis, GM developed an urban electric car, but limited range and performance issues hindered its widespread acceptance.
Tesla, founded in 2003, benefitted from the battle against climate change and a spike in oil prices in 2008. Since then, electric vehicles have experienced a rapid rise in popularity and adoption by the general public in the twenty-first century.
EV sales and market share have continued to grow year-over-year. With increasingly rigorous emissions standards, growing consumer concern for the environment and rapid advancements in EV technology, it is only a matter of time until electric vehicles completely replace the internal combustion engine.
As the age of internal combustion vehicles gives way to electric cars, we need to figure out which charging solution best suits contemporary living.
What are the 7 key considerations for choosing how to charge your electric vehicle?
Speed – The speed at which your electric vehicle charges mainly depends on its charging and battery capacity, and the type of charging station you use. The charging capacity for the different types of EVs on the market varies broadly. You can charge a fully depleted battery in slightly under an hour to over a full day. Public charging stations, which have a different connection to the grid, are the fastest chargers, while personal at-home charging is typically the slowest.
Convenience – Convenience will vary according to your circumstances, but charging at home (or in your condo parking spot) is the most convenient solution if you have the space for a home charging system. However, if you don’t have a garage or dedicated parking space in a condominium building or at work, you will need to rely on public, work or shared charging stations.
Charging Cost – The cost to charge your EV will largely depend on where you charge it and what rates your utility company offers. The average cost of home electricity across Canada is $0.174 per kWh. This means the cost to charge a Tesla Model 3 is $2.59/100km while the cost of fueling a Honda Civic is $9.76/100km. The charging cost could decrease substantially if you are able to use public and work chargers.
Supplies and Installation Cost – The cost of supplies and installation differs according to which charger you choose to install. The two widely used types of home chargers in Canada are Level 1 and Level 2. Typically, the total cost of supplies and installation ranges from $1,500-1,800 (Level 1) to $2,500-2,700 (Level 2).
Obsolescence – As charging technology changes, you may need to replace your hardware when you buy a new car. This happened in the mobile phone charging world when Apple stopped building phones to support the 30-pin dock and switched to the lightning cable. Likewise, other phone makers switched from USB-mini to USB-C. As charging technology advances and batteries change, it is reasonable to expect that the hardware will change. If you’ve decided to install private charging, then you need to foot the bill for an upgrade.
Future Flexibility (Brand Lock-in) – When you install a Tesla charger, you are making a long term commitment to Tesla. But if you install any other charger, it will be compatible with all of the major car manufacturers. Installing a new charging station would have to be a consideration when buying a new car.
Interoperability – Plus, if you sell your home and it has a Tesla charging station, this will be of less value to someone who drives an electric vehicle of another brand. Similarly, owning your charging station has less value if your guests’ cars are not compatible with your charger.
What are the pros and cons of the different types of charging solutions?
Personal Charging Stations:
Today, the majority (around 80%) of all electric vehicle charging happens at home.
The main reason for the disproportionate reliance on home charging is probably due to EV owners being unable to consistently rely on the public charging infrastructure. This means early adopters will need to continue investing in their own charging stations until the other types of charging options become more widely available.
At the same time, while owning an EV has become more affordable, EV owners on average appear to have the financial means to live in housing with space for a personal charger.
Pros:
If you have the space to charge your EV using a dedicated charge point, it will certainly be the most convenient option. You can also save money by charging your EV overnight when the cost of electricity is lowest.
Cons:
Not suited for contemporary living in cities as people often live in condominium and multi-family housing with limited parking space.
The upfront costs of supplies and installation.
Charging speed is slower than other types of charging stations.
The on-going charging costs are higher than public and work charging stations
Public Charging Stations:
The various levels of the Canadian government and private companies, like Tesla and Petro-Canada, have made significant investments in expanding the EV charging infrastructure. As a result, you now have access to over 5000 public charging stations across Canada.
Pros:
Level 2 and 3 public chargers are becoming increasingly available.
The most common public charger, same as in homes, is Level 2. These chargers are found at restaurants, grocery stores, malls and parkades. Level 2 public charging is a great option when you are staying at your destination for several hours or are looking for a quick top-up. The fact that you can use them for free also reduces the cost of owning an EV.
The faster, but more expensive, option is Level 3 chargers. These chargers are located along major roads and highways and are billed by the minute. Level 3 chargers are a good option if you don't have the time to stop and use a Level 2 charging station.
If you don’t have access to a charger at home, then this is likely the option you will frequently need to rely on.
Cons:
Reliant on governments and private companies investing to expand the charging infrastructure.
Can be difficult to find available chargers during your daily activities.
Need to either have an extended period of time to charge your EV or pay for rapid charging.
Work Charging Stations:
Companies across Canada are starting to understand the merits of installing on-site charging stations for their employees. As a result, you will see an increasing number of Canadian employers installing chargers now and in the near future.
Pros:
To incentivize employees to drive electric vehicles, companies often provide charging for free or at a subsidized price. The convenience of charging your EV while working is also a clear bonus.
If you are lucky enough to work for a company with charging stations, this could be a great option for you.
Cons:
Will take time until this option is widely available.
Might need to pay for charging.
May not have a sufficient number of chargers for all employees to use.
Shared Charging Stations:
In Canada, the majority of new construction is condos. And, as more Canadians living in multi-unit dwellings buy electric vehicles, developers and property managers are needing to adapt to residents’ new demands by installing charging stations.
Many Canadian cities already have bylaws and regulations to increase the number of parking spots in new condos and multi-family buildings with energized outlets. It is also more cost-effective to install chargers when building a new home than retrofitting an existing one.
For these reasons, you will see a steady increase in the availability of shared charging stations in new housing developments.
Pros:
Charging stations in multi-family buildings and condos share many of the same convenience benefits of personal home charging stations. As well, shared chargers are a great way to share the upfront costs of supplies and installation.
While you may experience some red tape or obstacles for installing communal chargers in older buildings, it could still be an option if you can gain the support of your property managers and fellow residents.
Cons:
There are several challenges related to the installation of shared charging stations ranging from parking and electrical service access to billing and legal concerns.
Chargers may not always be available when you need them.
It will take time for shared chargers to be widely available as they will mainly be installed in new construction buildings.
Battery Swap Stations:
Battery swap stations are the closest substitute to gas stations. In theory, you would drive your vehicle into a battery swap station, and a robot would replace the drained battery with a fully charged spare. However, there are currently no battery swap stations outside of China, and the required investment to build the infrastructure likely makes it a non-starter. Companies like Tesla have already abandoned the idea to focus on building the EV charging infrastructure.
Pros:
If the network of battery swap stations expands to the level of gas stations, it would be the quickest option and potentially more convenient than some of the other charging options.
Cons:
Would likely be the most expensive option.
It requires a shift in EV consumer preferences or significant advancement in technology.
Less convenient than personal or shared charging.
Our prediction for the future of charging
Owning and using an electric vehicle is difficult — if not impossible — without reliable access to an EV charger. This means people will continue to charge their EVs at various public facilities and commercial spaces built across Canada. But, in our view, most EV owners will still prefer the convenience of charging in their residence equipped with an in-house charging station. Installing charging infrastructure in your home could also add to your home’s resale value.
Because of the limited public charging infrastructure, we believe that from now until 2030, personal home chargers will ramp up in single-detached homes. While in condos and other multi-family housing, it makes more sense to install a shared charging station with the ability to book charging time. Companies, like ChargePoint and EverCharge, will pop-up across Canada to make shared charging easy for all residents.
As the charging technology advances, charging times will drop and you will likely see business districts (e.g., strip malls and business improvement associations) install public charging stations to draw traffic and increase revenues. At the same time, companies will install charging stations after seeing the boost in employee retention and satisfaction. You will then be able to use a number of different mobile apps to charge on the go using the charging network while in a work meeting, having lunch with friends, or in the supermarket.
Beyond 2030
Once public charging stations become common, personal charging stations will fall out of favour. Installing a personal charger at that point would make as much sense as installing a gas tank next to your garage.
Perhaps by 2050 or later, high-powered wireless charging without the same space and adapter compatibility issues will unlock new opportunities. As well, smart charging is expected to hold the key to unleashing synergies between the clean transport sector and low-carbon electricity.
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