How Likely is a Third Wave of COVID-19?

Canada is struggling to contain the second wave of infection, and we expect localized restrictions and lockdowns.

Canada has not yet flattened the curve on wave 2 and we should probably be preparing ourselves mentally for a third wave in the Spring.

Several vaccine candidates have reported promising results and, once they are approved for use in Canada, it will take 6 to 9 months to vaccinate enough Canadians to achieve herd immunity. Vaccine supplies, physical logistics, and anti-vaccine attitudes will be the greatest challenges once vaccines are approved.

After initial emergency authorization, the government will likely prioritize vaccination for front-line health care workers, essential workers, and public safety officials. As well, immunocompromised individuals and residents of nursing homes.

Vulnerable Canadians will be vaccinated next – more than 25% of Canada’s population (almost 10 million people) is considered at higher risk. Since Canada will be sharing the vaccine with other countries, it will likely take 6 to 9 months to vaccinate vulnerable Canadians and reach the ‘new normal.’

A study headed by Dr. Kristine A. Moore, medical director at the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, explored scenarios for the pandemic's evolution. Her research team predicted that the second wave in the Fall of 2020 was a likely scenario.

Now that we are in the midst of the second wave, we need to look ahead to what’s next.

Scenario 1 - Cautious Optimism

Canadians continue to follow health policy guidance and wear masks and continue social distancing until enough people are vaccinated to provide herd immunity. The second wave is the last.

Scenario 2 - Reckless Optimism

In Spring 2021, once most of the vulnerable have been vaccinated, many Canadians will stop wearing masks and social distancing. They will hold the mistaken belief that vaccinating the most at risk is good enough.

This could lead to a massive third wave of infections. The lives of many people who are vulnerable, but didn’t know it, would be lost in this scenario. The provinces would likely have to reimpose local restrictions and lockdowns.

Like this report? Like us on Facebook.